After Sarawak, Johor is the new political frontline

Speech by DAP Johor Chairman Liew Chin Tong on Sunday 10th April 2016 at “Forum Kedai Kopi” at Taman Aman, Kluang

This is my first public event in Kluang since being diagnosed with Bell’s palsy on 7th January 2016. I am recovering well and I wish to thank the people of Kluang for their concern. I would also like to thank my staff for their hard work during my absence, as well as the leadership of DAP State Secretary cum State Opposition Leader Gan Peck Cheng during my absence.

Malaysian politics experienced major realignment over the past year since Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s removal as Deputy Prime Minister on 28th July 2015 and the signing of the Citizen’s Declaration on 4th March 2016. After the Sarawak State Election, all eyes will turn to Johor which is the new political frontline. Let me explain why.

Even if we don’t take into consideration the Muhyiddin factor and the split in Johor UMNO (especially the recent attempt to remove Khaled Nordin as Mentri Besar), based on the results of the last general election in 2013, it could be predicted that merely a 5% swing would cause Barisan Nasional to lose 7 state seats and 7 parliamentary seats.

With a 10% swing, BN will lose another 7 seats and 4 additional parliamentary seats. In other words, a 10% swing will deprive BN of 14 state seats and 11 parliamentary seats. The 11 parliamentary seats do not include Muhyiddin’s Pagoh and other seats within his sphere of influence.

Johor has a total of 56 seats. It would take 29 seats to win state power.

Johor has 26 parliamentary seats. The Opposition won 5 seats in the last election. Barisan Nasional is currently ruling with 134 out of 222 seats. Johor provides the opportunity for the opposition to win at least 11 more parliamentary seats, bringing it closer to federal power.

With a 5% swing, the following BN state seats will fall
Gambir
Paloh
Mahkota
Nusajaya
Bukit Naning
Pemanis
Sungai Balang

With a 10% swing, BN will lose the following state seats
Senggarang
Semerah
Serom
Tenang
Kempas
Kemelah
Pulai Sebatang

With a 5％ swing, BN will lose the following Parliamentary seats
Pasir Gudang
Labis
Tebrau
Segamat
Ledang
Pulai
Muar

With 10% swing, BN will lose the following parliamentary seats
Sekijang
Tanjong Piai
Johor Bahru
Sri Gading
Johor DAP and our allies will work hard to win the support of more voters to prepare Johor as the front line state of a change of government at the federal and state levels.