The Black Swan Events in Johor

Although the Johor state assembly was only due for dissolution by 20 April 2027, the election was called about 10 months earlier when Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi dissolved it on 1 June. At the time of the dissolution, Barisan Nasional leaders were highly optimistic. Their internal assessment was that the coalition would be able to win between 45 and 48 seats.

The problem with this is that the assessment overlooked several key factors.

1. The 2022 victory in Johor was not as convincing as it appeared

In the March 2022 Johor state election, BN’s victory was, in many ways, less impressive than the seat count suggested.

Ismail Sabri Yaakob was the then Prime Minister. The state election was held on 12 March 2022, two weeks before Malaysia fully reopened its borders on 1 April after the pandemic. With voter turnout at a historically low level, BN relied largely on its well-organised grassroots machinery, mobilising just over 500,000 core votes to secure 40 seats.

However, in the November 2022 general election, BN could only maintain around 500,000 votes in Johor, whereas Pakatan Harapan’s vote surged from about 400,000 in the state election to more than 800,000 in the general election. Out of Johor’s 26 parliamentary seats, PH won 15, BN won 9 (including 7 by UMNO), while Perikatan Nasional secured 2.

2. A pampered leader

The federal Unity Government was formed after the 2022 general election. At the opening of the Johor State Assembly in 2023, the Sultan of Johor encouraged cooperation between the state government and opposition, referring to the opposition as a “balancing force”.

As a result, the opposition and the state government entered a period of relative political truce. They cooperated where possible, and when disagreements arose, the opposition generally offered constructive suggestions and alternative policies rather than engaging in outright confrontation.

Protected by this cooperative environment, Johor BN became shielded from criticism. It was never truly tested by shifting public opinion or by direct political competition with the opposition.

Everything changed when BN announced on 16 May that it would contest all 56 state seats, effectively throwing down the gauntlet to PH. The following day, at PH’s national convention in Johor Bahru, Prime Minister Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim formally accepted the challenge, signalling the beginning of a genuine head-to-head contest.

PH’s campaign capability is not necessarily inferior to BN’s. More importantly, Johor BN has now discovered that campaigning in an election is very different from organising routine political events in peacetime.

3. A series of “black swan” events

Onn Hafiz’s understanding of the DAP appeared superficial, resembling the simplistic rhetoric often found among online political operatives. His remark that he would not “sit at the same table with DAP” became the first black swan event after the state assembly was dissolved.

The second black swan event occurred when the Regent of Johor, Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim, spoke candidly during a forum in Muar about the relationship between the federal and state governments, sparking widespread public discussion.

The third black swan event involved former State Assembly Speaker and veteran UMNO leader Dr Puad Zarkashi, who openly criticised his own party leadership. His remarks created major political waves, and the controversy continues to unfold.

For this Johor state election, BN got to decide when to call the election, when the campaign would begin, and under what rules the contest would be fought. If BN ends up winning fewer than 40 seats, then despite remaining in power, it should be regarded as an embarrassment.

In short, in less than a month since 1 June, Johor’s political landscape has shifted from expectations of a landslide BN victory to predictions that BN could actually lose a lot of seats.

During the upcoming 14-day campaign period, we may witness BN’s seat count falling from its current benchmark of 40 seats—perhaps losing one seat every two days, or even one seat per day.