Mahkota By-Election: The Polemics about Voter Turnout

There has been quite a bit of polemics about voter turnout in the Mahkota by-election, especially focusing on the turnout rate from each of the ethnic groups.

As very few polling stations are constituted by a single ethnic group, all commentators are using their own estimated numbers.

Institut Darul Ehsan pored through turnout rate of all polling stations and suggested in their statement on 29 September 2024 that the turnout rate according to its study is:

The ethnic turnout rate estimated by IDE is almost the same as the turnout rate for the Johor State Election in March 2022. 

To dive deeper, let’s take the Kampong Melayu I polling station, which has 95.74% Malay voters. Its 5 polling streams have the following turnout rate:

With 81% ethnic Chinese, the Bandar Tengah polling station is most representative of ethnic Chinese voting turnout. Turnout rate at the polling streams is as follows:

In Bandar Tengah, the percentage of votes won by Barisan Nasional candidate Sdr Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah in each of the voting streams is as follows:

If one looks through all the polling streams regardless of ethnicity, the last two or three streams in each of the polling stations have lower turnout as admittedly most younger Kluang voters work out of town, many in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Awareness among younger voters was insufficient – I met some young voters who were eligible to vote  (through automatic registration) but were not aware.

The Pakatan Harapan ground campaign team led by Kluang MP Sdri Wong Shu Qi had a clear understanding that we were in a very difficult campaign due to various factors including the prevailing unhappiness with the Akmal-Teresa spat.

However, we were also confident that with relentless campaigning we could turn things around and reach around 50% ethnic Chinese turnout though I also cautioned those who wish for a higher ethnic Chinese turnout that even on the most rosy day, the figure would not exceed 55%.

We were able to convince the voters that a vote for Syed Hussien is a vote for the leadership of Johor Menteri Besar Dato’ Onn Hafiz Ghazi, as well as a vote for the Unity Government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

The most salient point of the Mahkota by-election is that the Barisan Nasional candidate won all 121 polling streams in the 18 polling stations.

8 polling stations, namely Kg Tengah, Taman Lian Seng, Hj Manan, Bandar Tengah, Taman Ilham, Taman Kerjasama, Taman Suria, and Indah Jaya, were won by Pakatan Harapan by a landslide margin in the March 2022 Johor State Election, and now won by Barisan Nasional candidate with a landslide margin, which contributes to the resounding victory on last Saturday. This is the vote “transferability” that I spoke about earlier, as a result of intense campaigning and persuasion of Pakatan Harapan’s voter base.

Therefore, by all measurements ethnic chinese turnout was closer to 50% and not the 35% as some claimed. more importantly, almost all Pakatan Harapan core supporters, regardless of ethnicity, gave their full support to Barisan Nasional in this by-election.

Media statement by DAP Johor Chairman Liew Chin Tong on 1 October 2024